We're seeing some interesting technical challenges on the EURUSD at the moment, with key levels being tested, and the medium longer term structure since 2008 remaining intact.
On the EUR/USD uptrend since earlier this June, I've drawn in the June and September lows as well as lines based on the angles seen in the uptrend from late 2008 to late 2009, which also fits on the 2007 to early 2008 uptrend. On the steeper angle support is cleanly pierced, threatening significant follow through, and this would imply that November's 1.42 area high is a major long term resistance point and start of a current strong downtrend, and the implied 1.45 area point was not to be.
On the other hand, the lower angled (green) line in the top chart gives a suggestion of a shorter downtrend along current decending support (since early November) followed by perhaps more robust support around 1.308, and consider again the 1.45 level suggested by the higher medium term (red) descending resistance line.
Towards the near term (15 minute) chart we can see the June to November uptrend support formed by the June and September lows being breached today, before bouncing off November's falling trendline support and settling back above the aforesaid June - November uptrend support (just).
In other words, we are sitting at right above uptrend support, and above and not far off nearer term downtrend support. On the longest term chart (top), with help from my approximate alignment of a slower set of indicators, MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all pointing firmly down.
With nothing fundamentally to support any further bull interest, my feeling points perhaps some consideration of of the rising trend from June, but eventually a visit of 1.308; any continued perception of weakness here should bring a visit to 1.18 if the which fits broadly with the medium term trend from 2008.
